SPC AC 131647

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1147 AM CDT Thu Apr 13 2017

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE HIGH
   PLAINS OF WEST TX TO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms, potentially capable of hail and gusty
   winds, are possible Friday from the central Great Plains southward
   into the southern High Plains and into parts of the middle Missouri
   Valley Friday night.

   ...Central US...

   Weak mid-level height falls will glance the central Plains Friday as
   primary large-scale forcing for ascent spreads across the northern
   Plains and central Provinces of Canada.  Broad upper troughing is
   expected to influence the Rockies through the period and this will
   maintain a lee surface trough/dry line from far West TX into NE. 
   Lee cyclone will be shunted off the higher terrain across NE late
   Friday, as a pronounced surface ridge builds east towards the
   northern Plains, forcing a cold front to a position from MN into
   northeast CO by 15/12z.

   In the absence of meaningful forcing along the dry line,
   boundary-layer heating will be the primary mechanism for inducing
   isolated thunderstorms across the High Plains.  Forecast soundings
   suggest convective temperatures will be breached after 22z and there
   will likely be adequate low-level convergence along the dry line for
   a few storms by late afternoon - a few likely supercellular in
   nature.  Large hail and gusty winds would be the primary threats
   with any dry line storms.  This activity should weaken with loss of
   daytime heating.

   Farther north across the central Plains into the middle MO Valley,
   low-level warm advection will be noted through the period from NE
   into IA.  Models suggest LLJ will strengthen during the latter half
   of the period and any heat-induced storms that generate over western
   NE should be maintained within the warm advection zone extending
   into northwest IA during the overnight hours.  Large hail and
   locally damaging winds are the primary threats with this activity.

   ..Darrow.. 04/13/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z