SPC AC 050554

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1254 AM CDT Mon Jun 05 2017

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong thunderstorms, a few severe, are expected across portions of
   the Southeast, including the northern Florida Peninsula.  Isolated
   severe thunderstorms should also develop across the central and
   southern High Plains.

   ...High Plains...

   Mean upper ridge position will hold across the Rockies through the
   day2 period with a corridor of modest northwesterly flow expected
   along the front side of this feature from southern CO into the Big
   Bend region of TX. While a few weak disturbances could migrate
   through the ridge it's not readily apparent whether any short-wave
   troughs will crest the ridge and dig southeast within the
   aforementioned stronger flow across the High Plains. Even so,
   thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain and
   adjacent High Plains Tuesday as strong boundary-layer warming forces
   surface parcels to their convective temperatures. Additionally,
   convection should focus along a southward-moving cold front as it
   progresses into NE/CO.  Forecast soundings across the MRGL risk
   exhibit steep lapse rates and modest instability within a sheared
   environment seemingly favorable for loosely organized thunderstorm
   clusters. Storm motions should be south-southeast and hail/wind are
   the primary threats.

   ...FL...

   Models are in general agreement that an upper low over TX will dig
   east-southeast into the northern Gulf Basin, partially in response
   to heights falling across the OH Valley/Middle Atlantic region. As a
   result, a belt of modest mid-level flow (40kt at 500mb) will develop
   across the FL Peninsula, well south of a synoptic front that will
   sag into GA/southern AL by 18z. Extensive clouds/precip should
   develop in response to this active southern-stream branch over the
   Gulf Basin and spread across FL. Limited sunshine will inhibit
   boundary-layer heating and poor lapse rates are expected across FL
   within an otherwise modestly sheared environment. While buoyancy
   will be weak, will maintain 5% severe probs to account for gusty
   winds with convection that organizes across this region.

   ..Darrow.. 06/05/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z