Sep 9, 2017 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Sep 9 16:57:24 UTC 2017 (20170909 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20170909 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170909 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 42,960 14,304,771 Jacksonville, FL...Miami, FL...Hialeah, FL...Orlando, FL...Fort Lauderdale, FL...
MARGINAL 26,376 5,073,545 Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Savannah, GA...Clearwater, FL...Charleston, SC...
Probabilistic Graphic
20170909 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 69,454 19,381,623 Jacksonville, FL...Miami, FL...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...
   SPC AC 091657

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1157 AM CDT Sat Sep 09 2017

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
   FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO COASTAL GEORGIA...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FLORIDA
   INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few tornadoes are possible across portions of the Florida
   Peninsula and coastal Georgia and South Carolina Sunday as Hurricane
   Irma impacts the region.

   ...Synopsis...
   A generally weak flow regime will exist across much of the CONUS as
   an upper trough exits the Northeast, and an upper low meanders off
   the CA coast. The primary area of concern will be across the
   Southeast, from FL across coastal GA and SC where Irma will have an
   impact.

   Elsewhere, sufficient moisture will exist across much of southern CA
   into AZ east of the upper low to support daytime thunderstorms.
   However, severe weather is not anticipated there.

   ...Florida into the coastal Southeast...
   Adjusted the Slight risk a bit westward across central FL in
   coordination with the latest Hurricane Irma center track from NHC.
   The most favorable conditions for a few tornadoes will be east of
   the center line, where the most robust moisture and instability will
   exist, in addition to being climatologically favorable. Models
   indicate substantial SRH increasing through the period, and
   approaching parts of SC into Monday morning.

   ..Jewell.. 09/09/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z