Oct 1, 2017 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Oct 1 05:57:23 UTC 2017 (20171001 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20171001 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171001 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 121,764 6,049,369 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Duluth, MN...Sioux City, IA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20171001 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 121,993 6,067,567 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Duluth, MN...Sioux City, IA...
   SPC AC 010557

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1257 AM CDT Sun Oct 01 2017

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS POTIONS
   OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL U.S....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Risk for hail with stronger/locally severe storms is evident across
   portions of the central and northern Plains and upper Mississippi
   Valley areas Monday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A highly amplified flow field aloft is forecast to persist across
   North America Monday, as a large trough/low remains over the western
   and north-central portions of the U.S. and a ridge prevails over the
   East.

   At the surface, a baroclinic zone is forecast to remain
   quasi-stationary from the central High Plains north-northeast to the
   upper Mississippi Valley area, beneath the weakly rising mid-level
   height field progged to resit atop the area.  Elsewhere, high
   pressure is expected to prevail.

   ...Central and north-central portions of the country...
   Very fast southwesterly/south-southwesterly flow aloft is progged
   from the southern Rockies north-northeast to the northern
   Plains/upper Great Lakes region, within a tightening/weakly rising
   height field sandwiched between the western U.S. ridge and the
   eastern trough.  With a quasi-stationary surface front lying
   south-southwest to north-northeast across the central U.S. and but
   overall weak/background large-scale subsidence, it would appear that
   the warm sector will remain largely capped, despite afternoon
   heating/destabilization.

   It continues to appear that the greatest convective risk will remain
   to the cool side of the front, in an anafrontal regime where
   background subsidence is overcome by isentropically ascending
   low-level air.  Expect showers and thunderstorms to increase through
   the afternoon and evening from southwest Kansas north-northeast into
   the upper Mississippi Valley area, to the cool side of the front
   where ample elevated instability should exist.

   With very fast flow aloft, ample speed shear is expected suggestive
   of potential for stronger embedded cells to evolve at times.  While
   surface-based storm risk appears to remain low at this time, hail
   will be possible with these occasionally stronger cells during the
   afternoon and evening hours -- warranting continuation of a 5%/MRGL
   risk area.

   ..Goss.. 10/01/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z