SPC AC 061659
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2017
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
The threat of severe storms appears low across the contiguous United
States on Tuesday.
Fast, zonal mid/upper flow will persist from the Desert Southwest to
the East Coast Tuesday. As a compact vorticity max drops southeast
from the Great Basin towards the Four Corners, several weak/sheared
impulses embedded in fast southern stream flow will advance from the
lower/mid Mississippi Valley towards the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.
At the surface, high pressure will build over the Plains, pushing a
cold front southeast towards the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, a weak
cyclone will evolve over the southern Appalachians through the day,
with the aforementioned cold front trailing to its southwest. Storms
will likely be ongoing during the morning, within a warm-advection
regime over the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic. Later in the
day, isolated storms may develop near the front to the southwest of
the cyclone. Effective shear and modest buoyancy could support a
stronger core or two, with perhaps some hail/gusty wind threat.
However, veered/weak low-level flow and related weak convergence
should keep coverage relatively low, with most updrafts struggling
to deepen sufficiently for a greater threat. As such, no severe
probabilities are introduced at this time.
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