Nov 6, 2017 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Nov 6 16:59:48 UTC 2017 (20171106 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20171106 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171106 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20171106 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 061659

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1059 AM CST Mon Nov 06 2017

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The threat of severe storms appears low across the contiguous United
   States on Tuesday.

   ...Southeast...
   Fast, zonal mid/upper flow will persist from the Desert Southwest to
   the East Coast Tuesday. As a compact vorticity max drops southeast
   from the Great Basin towards the Four Corners, several weak/sheared
   impulses embedded in fast southern stream flow will advance from the
   lower/mid Mississippi Valley towards the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.

   At the surface, high pressure will build over the Plains, pushing a
   cold front southeast towards the Gulf Coast. Meanwhile, a weak
   cyclone will evolve over the southern Appalachians through the day,
   with the aforementioned cold front trailing to its southwest. Storms
   will likely be ongoing during the morning, within a warm-advection
   regime over the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic. Later in the
   day, isolated storms may develop near the front to the southwest of
   the cyclone. Effective shear and modest buoyancy could support a
   stronger core or two, with perhaps some hail/gusty wind threat.
   However, veered/weak low-level flow and related weak convergence
   should keep coverage relatively low, with most updrafts struggling
   to deepen sufficiently for a greater threat. As such, no severe
   probabilities are introduced at this time.

   ..Picca.. 11/06/2017

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