SPC AC 191719

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1119 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2017

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   At least a marginal risk for severe storms is expected Wednesday
   over a portion of the Southeast States with primary risks being a
   few strong to damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two.

   ...Southeast States...

   A shortwave trough now approaching the southern High Plains will
   accelerate east, and deamplify as it continues through the TN Valley
   Wednesday. Preceding this feature, a warm front just inland of the
   Gulf Coast will advance northward and extend from a surface low over
   northern MS eastward through northern AL and GA by the start of day
   2. A cold front will extend southwest from the low into southwest LA
   and continue east during the period. A backdoor cold front is
   forecast to move south through the Carolinas and a portion of GA. 

   Widespread mostly elevated showers and thunderstorms should be in
   progress early Wednesday from northern MS and AL, TN, into northern
   GA within zone of isentropic ascent north of warm front. South of
   this activity a moist warm sector will have advected inland with low
   to mid 60s F near-surface dewpoints, except around 70 F near the
   Gulf Coast. However, very weak lapse rates with widespread clouds
   will likely limit MUCAPE to around 500 J/kg or less. Deep layer wind
   profiles with strong low-level and deep shear accompanying the
   shortwave trough will be favorable for organized storms. There will
   be some risk for a few strong to severe storms early in the period
   near the warm front from northern MS through northern AL. Additional
   storms may evolve farther south during the day within pre-frontal
   confluent zone from east MS through AL and GA. The low CAPE/high
   shear environment will support some risk for bowing segments and
   supercell structures with a few damaging wind gusts and possibly a
   tornado or two. The limiting factors including tendency for the
   deeper forcing to remain north of warm front and the very marginal
   thermodynamic environment in warm sector lowers confidence in a more
   robust severe threat at this time, but area will continue to be
   monitored for a possible slight risk in later updates.

   ..Dial.. 12/19/2017

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