SPC AC 040800

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 AM CST Wed Jan 04 2017

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms may impact parts of Florida and adjacent portions of
   the Southeast Friday night.  At the present time, the risk of severe
   weather appears negligible.

   ...Synopsis...
   Little change to the general large-scale mid/upper flow pattern is
   expected through this period, with blocking remaining prominent west
   of the North American Pacific coast, and split belts of westerlies
   converging downstream into broad troughing east of the Rockies
   through the Atlantic Seaboard.  However, models do indicate at least
   some increased phasing of a couple of belts westerlies, with
   amplification of large-scale ridging inland the Pacific coast.

   Coinciding with this development, some modification of cold surface
   ridging is possible across parts of the northern intermountain
   region and Great Basin Friday into Friday night.  This will be
   slower to commence to the east of the Rockies, with the leading edge
   of the deeper cold air forecast to continue advancing southward
   through the lower Rio Grande Valley, northwestern Gulf of Mexico and
   southern Atlantic Seaboard.  

   Along the front, models do indicate that a short wave impulse
   digging within the cyclonic flow may support a developing wave
   across the northeast Gulf of Mexico and adjacent portions of the
   Southeast into the western Atlantic.  This may be accompanied by
   considerable low/mid-level moistening and weak destabilization
   supportive of scattered thunderstorms, with activity spreading off
   the eastern Gulf into portions of the Florida Peninsula Friday
   night.  Additional thunderstorms could form along the front zone,
   mainly above the surface frontal inversion, across parts of northern
   Florida and perhaps adjacent southern portions of the eastern
   Gulf/south Atlantic Coast states.

   ...Southeast...
   At the present time, guidance is suggestive that any appreciable
   inland boundary layer destabilization may remain confined to the
   southern interior and southern into central coastal areas of the
   Florida Peninsula late Friday into Friday night, south of the
   stronger deep layer wind fields and shear, particularly in
   lower-levels.  Coupled with lingering predictability issues evident
   in the model output, the risk for severe storms still appears
   negligible.

   ..Kerr.. 01/04/2017

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