SPC AC 230712

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0212 AM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUTSIDE OF THE
   SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST
   KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms associated with large hail and isolated wind damage
   are expected to develop across parts of northeast Oklahoma,
   southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri late Tuesday afternoon into
   the evening. Other marginally severe storms with strong wind gusts
   may occur across eastern North Carolina.

   ...Oklahoma/Southeast Kansas/southwest Missouri...
   An upper-level trough is forecast to move east-southeastward across
   the southern and central Rockies into the High Plains on Tuesday. At
   the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward
   across the central Plains during the day reaching northern Oklahoma
   and western Missouri by early evening. A capping inversion should
   prevent convective initiation along the front during the afternoon.
   The cap should weaken by early evening allowing for thunderstorm
   development to take place in southwest Missouri and southeast
   Kansas. This convection is expected to develop southwestward into
   northeastern Oklahoma during by mid evening.

   GFS forecast soundings along this corridor at 03Z/Wednesday from
   Springfield to Tulsa show moderate instability (MLCAPE near 2000
   J/kg), 0-6 km shear around 50 kt and steep lapse rates from 700 to
   500 mb. This should support supercell development with large hail.
   An isolated wind-damage threat should also accompany supercells and
   with the stronger multicell line-segments that organize along the
   front.

   ...Eastern North Carolina...
   An upper-level low is forecast to move northeastward, offshore but
   parallel to the North Carolina coast on Tuesday. At the surface, a
   corridor of low-level moisture is forecast in eastern North Carolina
   where convection may develop during the morning into early
   afternoon. Although instability is forecast to remain weak, moderate
   deep-layer shear and the moist boundary layer could be enough for
   marginally severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells.

   ..Broyles.. 04/23/2017

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