SPC AC 080730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Mon May 08 2017

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS TO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms will be possible across parts of the southern/central
   Plains Wednesday into Wednesday night. Isolated strong/severe storms
   may also be possible across parts of the Ohio Valley.

   ...Synopsis...
   A broad closed mid/upper low will continue to progress eastward
   towards the Plains states on Wednesday, with several weak impulses
   moving around its periphery. Farther north, a northern-stream
   shortwave trough will advance from the northern Plains to the upper
   Great Lakes.

   ...Portions of the southern/central Plains...
   Convection may be ongoing at the beginning of the period across the
   southern Plains, aided by a low-level jet across parts of Texas and
   Oklahoma. Steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer
   shear may favor a few large hail reports or stronger wind gusts with
   these initial storms, despite being early in the day. However, these
   storms will likely play a role in the potential for more robust
   convection developing along a dry line later in the day across parts
   of the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. If sufficient clearing
   occurs behind early-day convection, the potential exists for a few
   supercells to organize by late afternoon/early evening across the
   region. Any such storm would be capable of large hail, damaging
   winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. However, this threat remains
   somewhat conditional (due to early-day storms) and thus changes to
   the outlook are likely to occur going forward.

   Farther north, storms will also form closer to a stationary/warm
   front stretching across Kansas. While low-level flow is expected to
   be relatively weak (due to a lack of a stronger large-scale mass
   response), steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient southwesterly
   mid-level flow will likely yield a threat for large hail and a few
   damaging gusts.

   ...Portions of the Ohio Valley...
   Convection will also develop farther east along a stationary front
   stretching from northern Missouri to the Carolinas, as impulses
   cross the region within west/northwesterly flow aloft. Sufficient
   deep-layer shear and modest buoyancy may support a few instances of
   large hail and/or damaging winds during the afternoon and evening.

   ..Picca.. 05/08/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z