Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...
SLIGHT
133,085
33,266,661
New York, NY...Greensboro, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...Richmond, VA...Worcester, MA...
MARGINAL
267,397
37,097,780
Charlotte, NC...Boston, MA...Virginia Beach, VA...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...
Probabilistic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 %
35,766
25,370,759
Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...
15 %
132,838
33,233,201
New York, NY...Greensboro, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...Richmond, VA...Worcester, MA...
5 %
267,680
37,152,322
Charlotte, NC...Boston, MA...Virginia Beach, VA...Atlanta, GA...Raleigh, NC...
SPC AC 170747
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2017
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY VICINITY NORTH INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND PARTS
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND THE
NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
across portions of the Northeast into the Mid-Atlantic states mainly
Monday afternoon into the early evening. Damaging wind gusts will
be the primary severe hazard but large hail is possible.
...Synopsis...
A large-scale mid-level trough will remain over the Great Lakes with
strong cyclonic flow located over the southern semicircle of the
trough. An upper-level disturbance is forecast to rapidly move from
the Upper Midwest to northern Indiana by early evening and into the
lower Great Lakes overnight Monday. At the surface, a cold
front/effective boundary will move east across parts of NY/PA and
the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic region with the trailing
portion of the boundary across the lower MS Valley.
...western Carolinas northward into New England...
Clusters of showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the OH
Valley southwest into portions of the lower MS Valley. Despite
relatively weak mid-level lapse rates, ample low-level moisture
(surface dewpoints ranging from the 60s-lower 70s degrees F from
north to south) combined with strong heating to the east of the
early-day convection, will contribute to moderate destabilization.
Models show neutral to weak 500-mb height falls and 30-40 kt
southwesterly 500-mb flow overspreading the western portion of the
warm sector during afternoon. Developing bands of strong to severe
thunderstorms are forecast with isolated to scattered 50-65 mph
gusts expected to result in several corridors of scattered wind
damage from the more intense thunderstorms. Marginally severe hail
will be possible, especially with more discrete cellular activity.
The storm clusters will likely move towards the Mid-Atlantic coast
and through the lower Hudson Valley during the evening. The loss of
heating and the cooler/more stable marine influence near the
immediate coast in southern New England may temper the overall
severe risk, as storms move into the region from the west primarily
after dark.
...Deep South...
Widely scattered diurnal thunderstorms are forecast to
develop/regenerate along old outflow during the afternoon. The
moist/unstable boundary layer will probably support several more
intense thunderstorms capable of localized damaging gusts and
perhaps marginally severe hail, with this threat diminishing during
the evening.
..Smith.. 06/17/2017
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z