Jun 23, 2017 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Jun 23 05:35:41 UTC 2017 (20170623 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20170623 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170623 0730 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 86,422 1,750,966 Albuquerque, NM...Pueblo, CO...Las Cruces, NM...Santa Fe, NM...Rio Rancho, NM...
Probabilistic Graphic
20170623 0730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 86,707 1,778,319 Albuquerque, NM...Pueblo, CO...Las Cruces, NM...Santa Fe, NM...Rio Rancho, NM...
   SPC AC 230535

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1235 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEW
   MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   General thunderstorms are expected on Sunday mainly from the
   southern Rockies across the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast. An
   isolated strong storm with hail is possible over New Mexico or
   southeast Colorado.

   ...Synopsis...
   A large area of cyclonic flow aloft will remain situated from the
   northern Plains eastward to the Atlantic coast, with upper high
   centered over northern Baja. This high is forecast to weaken over
   time, with afternoon thunderstorms over New Mexico into west Texas.
   A surface high will remain over the Plains, with southeasterly winds
   helping to maintain 50s dewpoints into New Mexico. A few strong
   storms are possible Sunday afternoon in New Mexico and southeast
   Colorado, with hail the main risk. 

   Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Texas coast
   eastward toward the coastal Carolinas, but neither instability nor
   shear will support much of a severe threat.

   ..Jewell.. 06/23/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z