SPC AC 090716
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Sat Sep 09 2017
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
FL INTO SOUTHEAST NC...
...SUMMARY...
Brief tornadoes are possible Monday from northwest Florida into
southeast North Carolina as Irma moves through the Southeast.
...Synopsis...
Current forecast track for Hurricane Irma takes the system from the
northern FL Peninsula northwestward into central AL/GA during the
period. Significant weakening is anticipated during this time,
particularly during the second half of the period, but the expansive
wind field associated with Irma is still expected to remain strong
enough to support a tornado threat (more details below).
Elsewhere, upper ridging centered over the Four Corners will remain
relatively unchanged and the upper low off the southern CA coast
will slowly drift northeastward.
...Northeast FL/Eastern GA/Eastern SC/Southeast NC...
Despite the anticipated northwestward movement of Irma, the tornado
threat is expected to remain somewhat closer to the coast where
dewpoints in the 70s and diurnal cloud breaks are most likely. Given
the moist atmospheric profiles and resulting weak lapse rates, these
higher dewpoints are needed to support even modest instability. This
instability will be co-located with strong low-level shear,
resulting in the threat for brief tornadoes.
..Mosier.. 09/09/2017
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z