Nov 5, 2017 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 5 07:27:42 UTC 2017 (20171105 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20171105 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171105 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20171105 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 050727

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0127 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2017

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are not expected across the U.S. Tuesday.

   ...Synopsis...
   Positively tilted troughing within the upper flow field across the
   U.S. will gradually shift southeastward out of the Rockies and
   across the Plains/Midwest.  Meanwhile, ridging is progged to expand
   over the West in the wake of this trough, and ahead of a large upper
   low moving south-southeast out of the Gulf of Alaska.  

   At the surface, high pressure will prevail across a large/expanding
   portion of the country in the wake of a surface cold front moving
   slowly southeastward across Southeast/southern Plains.

   Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity of
   the front during the period, and flow aloft would otherwise be
   sufficient to support organized convection.  However, relatively
   weak lapse rates and weak large-scale subsidence atop the warm
   sector should hinder convective intensity -- and preclude
   appreciable severe risk.

   ..Goss.. 11/05/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z