Jan 3, 2018 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 3 12:33:28 UTC 2018 (20180103 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180103 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180103 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180103 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180103 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180103 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 031233

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0633 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2018

   Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms are expected across the central and northern
   California coastal areas late this afternoon and evening, and early
   in the day along the Florida east coast.

   ...Synopsis...
   A potent shortwave trough embedded withing a larger-scale eastern
   U.S. trough will rapidly move across the Southeast today, with low
   pressure deepening just offshore over the Atlantic. Weak instability
   currently exists over the eastern Florida Peninsula, supportive of
   general thunderstorms, but should wane rapidly by midday as a cold
   front develops and winds shift to westerly. 

   To the west, a negatively tilted shortwave trough will affect
   roughly the northern half of the CA coast with weak elevated
   instability resulting in a few convective showers and lighting
   strikes.

   ..Jewell.. 01/03/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z