Jan 3, 2018 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 3 19:36:32 UTC 2018 (20180103 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180103 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180103 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180103 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180103 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180103 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 031936

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0136 PM CST Wed Jan 03 2018

   Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon through this
   evening across the central and northern California coastal areas.

   ...Discussion...
   No changes are made to the outlook for this issuance.

   ..Broyles.. 01/03/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Wed Jan 03 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   A surface cyclone just northwest of the Bahamas will deepen rapidly
   later today and tonight while moving north-northeastward along a
   baroclinic zone off the Carolina coasts, in response to ascent with
   a well-defined midlevel trough now approaching north FL, strong
   air-sea heat/moisture fluxes, and convective processes.  The front
   will back a little west as the cyclone deepens rapidly, but the west
   edge of the warm sector (and any related thunderstorm threat) is
   expected to remain just east of the Outer Banks.  It appears that
   any thunderstorm risk near the FL east coast is already shifting
   offshore as of 16z.

   Otherwise, a shortwave trough will eject northeastward and weaken
   slowly while approaching the central/northern CA coast.  A belt of
   ascent and plume of midlevel moisture preceding the trough will
   overspread the coast this afternoon/evening, with an attendant risk
   for a few elevated thunderstorms.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z