Jan 11, 2018 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 11 19:49:52 UTC 2018 (20180111 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180111 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180111 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180111 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180111 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180111 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 111949

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2018

   Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected across parts
   of the Gulf Coast and lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and
   tonight.  Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible across
   parts of the upper Ohio Valley and Carolinas.

   ...Discussion...

   Have lowered thunder probabilities west of the cold front across
   southeast TX. Frontal convection has organized along the wind shift
   and this activity is advancing toward the lower Sabine River Valley.
   Earlier thoughts regarding thunderstorms and low severe
   probabilities continue.

   ..Darrow.. 01/11/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2018/

   ...TX/LA/MS...
   A large upper trough is tracking eastward across the Plains states,
   with a strong cold front surging southeastward across OK/TX.  This
   front will move into the ArkLaTex region this afternoon, and is
   likely to provide the focus for a line of showers and thunderstorms.
   Forecast soundings ahead of the activity show relatively weak
   thermodynamic parameters are expected, with CAPE values below 500
   J/kg and weak mid-level lapse rates.  Low and mid-level winds fields
   will also be somewhat weak, limiting updraft organization and
   maintenance.  Gusty winds are expected along the leading edge of the
   convection this afternoon/evening.  However, the risk of severe wind
   gusts appears low, so will not add a MRGL risk area at this time.

   Elsewhere, showers with isolated thunderstorms will be possible
   along the front into the Mid MS Valley this afternoon and evening,
   in the upper OH Valley this evening and tonight, and in a plume of
   weakly unstable air later tonight over parts of SC/NC.  Severe
   storms are not expected in these areas.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z