Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 171300
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018
Valid 171300Z - 181200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
While severe storms are not expected, isolated thunderstorms will be
possible this morning across parts of north-central Texas toward the
Ark-La-Tex region, and possibly across the coastal Pacific Northwest
late tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
A progressive/semi-amplified pattern will persist over much of the
CONUS and Canada. An increasingly phased belt of confluent flow
featuring multiple eastward-moving disturbances will exist across
the Midwest to Appalachians and Northeast States, while an
additional upper trough amplifies and digs southeastward toward the
Pacific Northwest tonight.
A linear cluster of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are
spreading eastward early this morning across north Texas. A weak
southern-stream shortwave trough and modest moisture/weak buoyancy
within an elevated frontal zone will continue to support the
potential for thunderstorms this morning across north Texas toward
the Ark-La-Tex, with the 12z observed sounding from Fort Worth
sampling 300 J/kg MUCAPE based around 700mb/3km AGL. Overall
thunderstorm potential should gradually diminish by afternoon across
the region.
Steepening lapse rates in conjunction with a southeastward-digging
upper trough could account for a few thunderstorms late tonight
along the coastal Pacific Northwest.
..Guyer.. 02/17/2018
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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