Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 011603
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1003 AM CST Thu Mar 01 2018
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING....
Thunderstorms capable of locally gusty/damaging winds will be
possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon and early
Morning radar loop shows a long-lived convective line moving across
parts of AL/GA. While the line shows some mesoscale organization,
updrafts are rather weak with no lightning activity indicated for
several hours. Ahead of the convection, a surface warm front
extends across northern SC and into southeast NC. Visible satellite
imagery suggests that heating will occur to the south of the
boundary, leading to a corridor of MLCAPE of 500-900 J/kg. While
these values are marginal, forecast soundings show very strong
westerly flow from just above the surface to the mid-levels. A
consensus of 12z model guidance suggests the convective line will
move eastward along the warm front and strengthen somewhat this
afternoon as instability increases. This may be sufficient for a
few robust bowing segments along the line capable of locally
damaging wind gusts. An isolated QLCS tornado is also possible.
Therefore, have re-introduced a MRGL risk area in vicinity of the
warm front for this afternoon and evening.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z