Mar 1, 2018 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 1 16:03:28 UTC 2018 (20180301 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180301 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180301 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 26,600 4,682,003 Charlotte, NC...Fayetteville, NC...Columbia, SC...Wilmington, NC...Jacksonville, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180301 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 26,715 4,758,407 Charlotte, NC...Fayetteville, NC...Columbia, SC...Wilmington, NC...Jacksonville, NC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180301 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 27,025 4,854,728 Charlotte, NC...Fayetteville, NC...Columbia, SC...Wilmington, NC...Jacksonville, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180301 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 011603

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1003 AM CST Thu Mar 01 2018

   Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms capable of locally gusty/damaging winds will be
   possible across parts of the Carolinas this afternoon and early
   evening.

   ...Carolinas...
   Morning radar loop shows a long-lived convective line moving across
   parts of AL/GA.  While the line shows some mesoscale organization,
   updrafts are rather weak with no lightning activity indicated for
   several hours.  Ahead of the convection, a surface warm front
   extends across northern SC and into southeast NC.  Visible satellite
   imagery suggests that heating will occur to the south of the
   boundary, leading to a corridor of MLCAPE of 500-900 J/kg.  While
   these values are marginal, forecast soundings show very strong
   westerly flow from just above the surface to the mid-levels.  A
   consensus of 12z model guidance suggests the convective line will
   move eastward along the warm front and strengthen somewhat this
   afternoon as instability increases.  This may be sufficient for a
   few robust bowing segments along the line capable of locally
   damaging wind gusts.  An isolated QLCS tornado is also possible. 
   Therefore, have re-introduced a MRGL risk area in vicinity of the
   warm front for this afternoon and evening.

   ..Hart/Gleason.. 03/01/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z