New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Lafayette, LA...
MARGINAL
99,663
6,610,752
Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Jackson, MS...Tallahassee, FL...Spring Hill, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
42,208
4,875,926
New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Lafayette, LA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
40,569
4,630,558
New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Lafayette, LA...
5 %
99,070
6,355,814
Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Jackson, MS...Tallahassee, FL...Spring Hill, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
40,713
4,674,890
New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Lafayette, LA...
5 %
98,582
6,281,235
Montgomery, AL...Columbus, GA...Jackson, MS...Tallahassee, FL...Spring Hill, FL...
SPC AC 110602
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 AM CST Sun Mar 11 2018
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
LA...SOUTHERN MS AND SOUTHWEST AL...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Storms may produce severe hail and damaging wind gusts across parts
of the central Gulf Coast states, centered over Louisiana and
southern Mississippi during the day. Other isolated activity is
possible across the remainder of the area extending into
northwestern Florida.
...Synopsis...
A progressive shortwave trough will move southeastward from the
central Plains across the lower MS Valley by evening, merging with a
broader southern stream jet over the Gulf of Mexico. This will
maintain a broad area of strong southwesterly flow, as well as cool
temperatures aloft. At the surface, a cold front will extend from a
weak low in central MS southwestward into central TX Sunday morning,
moving to a central AL to southeast LA line by 00Z. This front will
likely be augmented by storm outflow from ongoing thunderstorms near
the Sabine river Sunday morning.
Ahead of the front, a moist and unstable air mass will exist with
mid to upper 60s F dewpoints from TX to southern MS. The combination
of strong flow aloft and instability should lead to at least an
isolated to scattered severe storm threat centered over Louisiana
during the day.
...Sabine river eastward across LA, southern MS and AL, southwest
GA...
Storms are now forming over northeastern TX as of late Saturday
evening ahead of a developing cold front. These storms are likely to
grow in coverage, and may merge into an MCS, reaching the Sabine
river early Sunday morning. Given the moist and unstable air mass
ahead of these expected storms, plenty of deep layer shear and cool
midlevel temperatures, storms may be severe as they track across LA,
southern MS, and perhaps southern AL. Any activity that remains
cellular will have more of a hail threat, but storm mode may be
complex, with ongoing clusters and/or additional activity ahead of
it.
Elsewhere, a few strong storms may approach the west coast of
Florida into Monday morning. Long straight hodographs will be
favorable for a few long-lived cells, although rotation should be
minimal. Marginal hail or wind will be possible.
..Jewell/Cook.. 03/11/2018
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