Mar 30, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 30 00:46:28 UTC 2018 (20180330 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180330 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180330 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180330 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180330 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180330 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 300046

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0746 PM CDT Thu Mar 29 2018

   Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Appreciable severe risk has diminished, with severe weather unlikely
   overnight.

   ...Discussion...
   Evening RAOBs confirm an overall lack of CAPE depicted by objective
   analyses this evening, and suggested by the general decrease in
   lightning observed over the past hour.

   While the deep-layer wind field remains quite strong, the lack of
   available instability suggests that storms will continue to
   gradually weaken over the next several hours.  By the end of the
   period, the band of showers -- and possibly some sporadic lightning
   -- should extend from the mid-Atlantic region to southeast Georgia
   and eastern portions of the Florida panhandle and the adjacent
   northern Florida Peninsula, with the cold front in lee of the
   Appalachians.

   Elsewhere, lightning has ceased over the central High Plains, with
   showers continuing to diminish.  Additional/appreciable lightning is
   not expected.

   ..Goss.. 03/30/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z