Jan 2, 2018 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 2 05:05:05 UTC 2018 (20180102 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20180102 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180102 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20180102 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 020505

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1105 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2018

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Some thunderstorm activity is possible across central California
   coastal areas late Wednesday afternoon and evening, but the risk for
   severe storms appears negligible.

   ...Discussion...
   Split belts of westerlies emanating from the Pacific are expected to
   remain more or less in phase across the U.S. through this period,
   but models suggest that ridging across the West and troughing across
   the East will become more amplified by 12Z Wednesday.  It still
   appears that a couple of consolidating perturbations within the base
   of the larger-scale troughing will provide support for rapid strong
   cyclogenesis over the western Atlantic.  This may initiate
   near/northeast of the Bahamas before proceeding northeastward,
   generally well east of the Atlantic Seaboard, with any related
   thunderstorm activity probably remaining confined to areas east of
   even the coastal waters.  In the wake of this system, cold/stable
   conditions likely will be reinforced across most areas east of the
   Rockies.

   While the upper ridging will also contribute to generally stable
   conditions across much of the West, models continue to indicate that
   the remnants of a northeastward accelerating closed low may pivot
   inland across parts of central and northern California late
   Wednesday through Wednesday night.  While guidance indicates that
   the associated mid-level cold pool will be rather modest (warmer
   than -20C), forecast soundings suggest that an elevated moisture
   return from the lower latitudes, beneath steepening mid-level lapse
   rates, may still contribute to mid-level destabilization supportive
   of weak thunderstorm activity.  This appears most probable across
   central coastal areas roughly during the 04/00-03Z time frame. 
   Continuation of this potential farther inland into parts of the San
   Joaquin and Sacramento Valleys Wednesday evening remains more
   unclear.

   ..Kerr.. 01/02/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z