SPC AC 021715

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1115 AM CST Tue Jan 02 2018

   Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few thunderstorms are expected across the central and northern
   California coastal areas late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Other
   thunderstorms might occur early Wednesday along a portion of the
   east Florida coast.

   ...Synopsis...

   The synoptic pattern will remain dominated by a high-amplitude upper
   trough over the eastern U.S. with an upstream ridge in the west. A
   significant shortwave trough will move into the base of the synoptic
   trough and through the northeast Gulf. This feature will cross the
   FL peninsula Wednesday afternoon, inducing cyclogenesis off the east
   coast of FL. Farther west a shortwave trough will move into northern
   and central CA Wednesday night. 

   ...Central through northwest California coastal areas...

   Modest mid-level lapse rates within a strengthening warm advection
   regime will contribute to weak instability over the central and
   northwest CA coastal areas in advance of the approaching shortwave
   trough. Scattered convection with a few thunderstorms developing
   within this regime will move onshore during the late afternoon or
   evening and continue into a portion of the overnight. 

   ...Florida east coast...

   Most thunderstorms will remain offshore, but a few thunderstorms
   could develop along the east FL coast in vicinity of a convergence
   zone near an inverted trough early in the period. Additional
   convection might develop farther inland, deeper in the post frontal
   zone in association with ascent accompanying the shortwave trough.
   While most of this activity will probably remain too shallow for
   charge separation, a few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out.

   ..Dial.. 01/02/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z