SPC AC 050535

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1135 PM CST Sun Feb 04 2018

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a corridor from central
   Texas to middle Tennessee.

   ...Discussion...

   Reinforcing surge of continental air will settle into the coastal
   plain of TX Monday where a coastal front is expected to evolve then
   lift north during the day2 period. Latest trends suggest moisture
   will be a bit slower to return to southeast TX than earlier guidance
   forecast. Even so, seasonally high PW will advance atop a cold
   boundary layer from central TX into western TN aided in large part
   by an increasing, but veered, LLJ. Forecast soundings across TX
   suggest relatively steep mid-level lapse rates (on the order of 7
   C/km) will advect toward the Arklatex which should enhance buoyancy
   for elevated post-frontal convection. MUCAPE may approach 800-900
   J/kg near the frontal corridor and robust updrafts could certainly
   develop within this ribbon of warm advection. There is some concern,
   given the forecast lapse rates, that hail could develop within the
   strongest updrafts, especially from central TX into southern AR.
   However current thinking is the majority of storms will struggle to
   produce hail in excess of .75". Will not introduce 5% severe probs
   at this time due to the expected marginality in hail size.

   ..Darrow.. 02/05/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z