SPC AC 281716
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2018
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN VA SOUTHWEST TO EAST-CENTRAL AL...
Thunderstorms associated with a marginal wind-damage threat will be
possible on Thursday from southern Virginia southwestward across the
Carolinas into northern Georgia and east-central Alabama.
An upper-level trough over the OH Valley will amplify as it moves
towards the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. on Thursday. An
upstream upper-level trough will remain established in the Pacific
Northwest. Surface low pressure will deepen as it moves from the OH
Valley to near the southern New England coast and an associated cold
front will move east/southeast through the mid-Atlantic and
southeast states, extending over central/southern FL by 12Z Friday.
This cold front will, with time, merge with more diffuse frontal
boundary extending from the central Appalachians southwest across
the lower MS Valley. A warm front extending southeast from the
surface low across coastal VA will lift northeast during the day.
...Western Carolinas southwest into east-central AL...
Widespread clouds will likely limit insolation in advance of the
aforementioned frontal boundaries on Thursday, with lower 60s dew
points resulting in only weak surface-based buoyancy during the day.
Lower/mid-level wind fields will strengthen with the amplifying
upper trough and deepening surface low as a focused region of
large-scale ascent moves east across the area during the day. A
narrow linear convective structure, possibly with minimal lightning,
may develop and move east from mid/late morning into the early
evening. Despite weak surface-based instability, the presence of
40-50 kts of southwesterly flow just above the surface will allow
for a brief/isolated risk for strong wind gusts as higher momentum
air is transported to the surface within stronger convective
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