Mar 4, 2018 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 4 05:45:10 UTC 2018 (20180304 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20180304 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180304 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 52,496 2,238,732 Jackson, MS...Monroe, LA...Alexandria, LA...Greenville, MS...Vicksburg, MS...
Probabilistic Graphic
20180304 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 50,993 2,146,848 Jackson, MS...Monroe, LA...Alexandria, LA...Greenville, MS...Vicksburg, MS...
   SPC AC 040545

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1145 PM CST Sat Mar 03 2018

   Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
   MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO PARTS OF THE
   UPPER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the lower
   Mississippi Valley Monday afternoon and evening, accompanied by some
   risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail.

   ...Discussion...
   Models continue to indicate that there may be considerable further
   weakening of the blocking mid/upper high center near Newfoundland
   and Labrador during this period.  However, little eastward
   progression of the broad and deep closed low to its south (centered
   over the western Atlantic) is forecast.  The upstream cyclone is
   still expected to slow, but guidance indicates that there will be
   some eastward redevelopment of the lower/mid tropospheric
   circulation center across the mid Missouri Valley toward the Upper
   Midwest.  This probably will be mostly in response to a perturbation
   pivoting around its southeastern/eastern periphery.

   While models indicate that further deepening of the mid-level low is
   possible, the increasingly occluded associated surface low may
   generally begin weaken by late Monday into Monday night.  Where
   low-level wind fields are forecast to remain fairly strong within
   the narrowing warm sector of the low (generally shifting from
   portions of the Ozark Plateau into the lower Ohio and Tennessee
   Valleys), models continue to indicate little potential for
   destabilization supportive of an appreciable risk for thunderstorm
   development.  It still appears that any appreciable boundary layer
   destabilization will be confined to a narrow pre-frontal corridor to
   the southwest, across the upper Texas coastal vicinity into the
   lower Mississippi Valley.

   ...Lower Mississippi Valley...
   Latest model runs appear at least somewhat more suggestive that
   sharper/deeper surface troughing curving south of the occluded low
   center could extend as far south as portions of the lower
   Mississippi Valley by peak heating Monday.  It appears that
   low-level moistening along this feature (including surface dew
   points in the lower/mid 60s F+) could support mixed layer CAPE in
   excess of 500 J/kg, and perhaps as high as 1000 J/kg.  And this
   destabilization seems to offer a window of opportunity for vigorous
   late afternoon into evening thunderstorm development.  Despite
   rather modest to weak low-level hodographs and shear, deep layer
   shear beneath 30-50 kt westerly 500 mb flow probably will enhance
   stronger storms, a few of which could be accompanied by a risk for
   potentially damaging wind gusts and small to perhaps marginally
   severe hail.

   ..Kerr.. 03/04/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z