SPC AC 250517

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1217 AM CDT Sun Mar 25 2018

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM A PORTION OF
   TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe storms are expected over a portion of the Southern
   Plains, primarily Monday afternoon and evening. Large hail and
   damaging wind will be the main threats.

   ...Synopsis...

   The upper pattern will be dominated by a slow-moving positive-tilt
   synoptic trough over the western states and an upper ridge in the
   east. Low-amplitude shortwave troughs embedded within a southwest
   flow regime will advance through the southern and central Plains
   region. At the surface a warm front will extend southeast through OK
   and the lower MS Valley from a surface low over the central High
   Plains early Monday. Dryline will extend south from the low through
   west TX and will mix east during the day, while a cold front moves
   south through the central Plains, eventually merging with dryline
   across northwest OK Monday night.

   ...Southern Plains region...

   Elevated storms should be ongoing from parts of eastern OK and KS
   into the middle MS Valley in association with a lead impulse. This
   activity will shift northeast during the day. A moist boundary layer
   with dewpoints from the low 60s F in OK to the upper 60s across
   south TX will reside in warm sector beneath the eastern extension of
   elevated mixed layer (EML) resulting in a corridor of moderate
   instability (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Warm air at base of the EML
   will probably cap the atmosphere to surface based storms most of the
   day. However potential will exist for isolated storms to develop
   along dryline by late afternoon. Thunderstorms will become more
   likely Monday evening and overnight from northwest TX to OK ahead of
   southeast-advancing cold front and in association with arrival of
   deeper ascent accompanying the next in series of shortwave troughs.
   Tendency will be for primary low-level jet to shift toward east TX
   and the MS Valley in association with lead shortwave trough,
   resulting in modest 0-2 km hodographs farther west where storms are
   more likely to initiate. However, bulk wind shear of 45-60 kt should
   promote supercell structures with initial storms, but tendency may
   be for some of this activity to evolve into linear segments with
   time.

   ..Dial.. 03/25/2018

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