Apr 7, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 7 17:22:26 UTC 2018 (20180407 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20180407 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180407 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20180407 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 071722

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1222 PM CDT Sat Apr 07 2018

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern
   and central Rockies on Sunday. A few thunderstorms are also forecast
   over the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Organized severe
   weather is not expected.

   ...Synopsis...
   A broad long wave trough over the central/eastern US is forecast to
   redevelop tomorrow as a series of short wave troughs progress
   southeastward into the central states, as a downstream trough over
   the eastern US moves offshore into the Atlantic.  At the surface, a
   cold front will settle southward across the central Florida
   peninsula before becoming diffuse by the end of the period.

   ...Florida Peninsula...
   The air mass along and south of the front over central Florida will
   remain moist with surface dew points of 65-70F.  Relatively warm
   mid-level temperatures will temper lapse rates, however, diabatic
   low-level heating through the afternoon will create sufficient
   buoyancy to support development of a few thunderstorms.  

   ...Parts of the Northern and Central Rockies...
   Satellite imagery indicates a well-defined upper low off the Pacific
   Northwest coast.  This system is forecast to move onshore early in
   the period and open into a short wave trough, before turning
   southeastward toward the central Rockies in response to upstream
   ridging over the eastern Pacific.  Colder mid-level temperatures
   associated with the trough will contribute to steepening lapse rates
   and marginal instability, especially during the diurnal heating
   period.  Isolated thunderstorms will be possible mainly during the
   afternoon and evening hours.

   ..Weiss.. 04/07/2018

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