SPC AC 050819

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0219 AM CST Fri Jan 05 2018

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected from east Texas into
   the lower Mississippi Valley late Sunday/early Monday, though any
   risk for severe weather appears minimal.

   ...Synopsis...
   As eastern U.S. upper troughing continues to shift offshore/across
   the western Atlantic, a second trough -- comprised of northern and
   southern stream impulses -- is forecast to cross the central U.S.
   Sunday.  

   At the surface, weak troughing is forecast to cross the central U.S.
   in conjunction with the upper troughing, while otherwise high
   pressure will prevail.

   ...South-central U.S....
   As southern-stream upper short-wave troughing crosses the southern
   Plains during the second half of the period, a weak surface low will
   likewise shift eastward, with current progs indicating that it will
   reach the lower Mississippi Valley by the end of the period.

   With recent cold intrusions into the Gulf of Mexico -- and thus a
   very incompletely modified boundary layer expected over the northern
   Gulf as this low shifts east, it would appear likely that northward
   advection of this air will remain trapped beneath a warmer
   lower-tropospheric layer.  As such, surface-based convection appears
   unlikely at this time.  With that said, rain/rain showers -- and
   possibly embedded/elevated thunderstorms -- will likely spread east
   out of east Texas and then across the Louisiana/Mississippi vicinity
   late in the period.  With any CAPE likely to remain elevated and
   weak, severe risk appears minimal at best.

   ..Goss.. 01/05/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z