Jan 15, 2018 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Jan 15 08:19:55 UTC 2018 (20180115 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20180115 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180115 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20180115 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 150819

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0219 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. Wednesday.

   ...Synopsis...
   Evolution toward a more progressive/lower-amplitude pattern aloft is
   expected Wednesday, as the eastern U.S. trough accelerates toward --
   and then off -- the East Cost overnight.  Meanwhile, weakly phased
   northern and southern-stream short-wave troughing will continue to
   cross the Rockies and eventually emerge into the Plains overnight,
   contributing to a continued suppression of background
   longer-wavelength ridging.  

   At the surface, high pressure will continue to prevail east of the
   Rockies.  The cool/stable boundary layer will again result in
   conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms over the eastern 2/3 of the
   country.  In the West, increasingly strong southwesterly flow aloft
   ahead of an upper low over the northeast Pacific will support
   upslope flow over the high terrain, and a corresponding increase in
   precipitation/convection through the second half of the period. 
   While sporadic/occasional lightning strikes may occur --
   particularly over western Washington late, coverage appears likely
   at this time to remain too sparse to warrant inclusion of a thunder
   area.

   ..Goss.. 01/15/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z