Jan 17, 2018 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 17 07:50:56 UTC 2018 (20180117 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20180117 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180117 0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20180117 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 170750

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0150 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The potential for thunderstorms appears low across the United States
   Friday.

   ...Discussion...
   Between a trough building along the West Coast and a weak ridge
   stretching from Baja California to the Ohio Valley, enhanced
   southwesterly mid-level flow will persist from California to the
   Midwest. In turn, a relatively progressive pattern will continue,
   especially across northern portions of the country. Farther south, a
   pair of weak impulses will partially phase over the central Gulf
   Coast Friday night.

   Across the country, thunderstorm chances appear fairly low through
   the period. A couple lightning strikes may be possible across the
   northern California coast, owing to cold temperatures aloft.
   However, decreasing boundary-layer moisture will limit buoyancy,
   relative to the previous day, likely tempering thunderstorm
   activity. Along the western/central Gulf Coast, weak forcing for
   ascent will continue to yield pockets of elevated buoyancy Friday.
   However, similar to the previous period, forecast buoyancy profiles
   appear too thin/weak to support sustained deep convection.

   ..Picca.. 01/17/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z