SPC AC 200806

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0206 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible as a cold front moves
   through portions of the Southeast on Monday.

   ...Synopsis...
   Mature cyclone centered over the central Plains at the beginning of
   the period is expected to move northeastward through the middle MS
   Valley into the Lower OH Valley during the period. At the same time,
   attendant surface low will take a similar track just ahead of the
   upper system while an associated cold front sweeps across the
   Southeast. Warm sector ahead of this cold front will become
   increasingly separated from the parent upper system over time.
   However, a corridor of low 60s dewpoints and marginal instability
   will still support thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast. A
   severe storm or two is possible. Isolated thunderstorms are possible
   as far north as the TN Valley where cooler temperatures aloft will
   support marginal instability in the absence of better low-level
   moisture.

   ...Portions of Southeast...
   Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
   along and immediately behind a cold front expected to extend from
   near MEM southwestward to near LCH. While the most unstable air will
   remain offshore, enough instability will exist for thunderstorms to
   persist along this front as it continues eastward through the
   region. Given the strength of the wind fields, some of these storms
   could produce damaging wind gusts. Primary uncertainty with this
   forecast is the strength and persistence of any surface-based
   updrafts, particularly given the anticipated speed of the front and
   limited daytime heating.

   ..Mosier.. 01/20/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z