SPC AC 130703

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

   Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING NORTH
   INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong thunderstorms, some severe, will spread across the Southeast
   and parts of the Middle Atlantic Sunday.

   ...Discussion...

   Significant large-scale forcing is expected to spread across
   portions of the Southeast and Middle Atlantic region during the day3
   period as strong mid-level flow translates into this region. Latest
   model guidance suggest a pronounced surface front will surge into
   GA/FL Panhandle early in the period then into the lee of the
   Appalachians Sunday evening. Frontal forcing is expected to aid a
   significant squall line along the wind shift as it advances east,
   aided by mid-level height falls. Strong shear profiles will support
   organized updrafts but the primary storm mode should be linear due
   to frontal forcing. Greatest buoyancy is expected to extend as far
   north as southern GA into coastal SC and there is some concern that
   a few discrete storms could evolve ahead of the front across this
   region. Have focused 15% severe probs for areas of potentially more
   instability where isolated supercells may evolve in addition to a
   linear MCS. Farther north across the Middle Atlantic, low severe
   probs should suffice where forecast buoyancy is expected to be
   considerably weaker. Even so, a strongly sheared forced squall line
   should advance across portions of NC/VA. Damaging winds are the
   primary threat with this convection.

   ..Darrow.. 04/13/2018

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z