San Antonio, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...St. Louis, MO...Madison, WI...Shreveport, LA...
MARGINAL
165,140
28,573,760
Chicago, IL...Houston, TX...Indianapolis, IN...Memphis, TN...Kansas City, MO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
162,377
16,704,744
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
2 %
253,761
21,129,779
San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...Madison, WI...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
San Antonio, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...St. Louis, MO...Madison, WI...
5 %
193,066
30,429,193
Chicago, IL...Houston, TX...Indianapolis, IN...Memphis, TN...Kansas City, MO...
SPC AC 171931
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019
Valid 172000Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX INTO SOUTHEAST OK...AND ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHEAST KS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe storms are expected from the Texas
Panhandle to the Mid-Mississippi Valley from late afternoon through
tonight, and from south-central to northeast Texas, mainly this
evening into tonight. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes are possible.
No change was made to the previous outlook as the bulk of the severe
activity is expected later this afternoon and evening across TX, KS
and MO.
...TX Panhandle into western/northwest OK...
A single storm producing large hail was noted over Donley county TX
at 1930Z, and this general zone along the cold front into northwest
OK will continue to destabilize and become more favorable for
additional storm development, with damaging hail and wind the most
likely threats.
..Jewell.. 04/17/2019
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019/
...TX Panhandle to the Mid-MS Valley...
Highest confidence signal for severe storm development is across
this region. Thunderstorms will form in the vicinity of the surface
cyclone over the TX Panhandle by 21Z and then develop northeast
along a quasi-stationary front across northwest OK to southeast KS
through the early evening. Very steep mid-level lapse rates of 8-9
C/km will support a warm sector characterized by MLCAPE of 1000-2500
J/kg. Storms initially will pose a threat for very large hail and a
couple tornadoes. However, upscale growth/consolidation is expected
rather quickly given the degree of ascent and orientation of the
deep-layer wind fields to the front. Latest CAMs are somewhat
inconsistent with the degree of development into the higher-quality
buoyancy across central OK.
40-50 kt effective shear will support potential for several bowing
line segments as the cold front sharpens during the evening.
Damaging winds, some embedded hail, and a few tornadoes will be
possible as multiple MCSs likely persist east-northeast towards the
Mid-MS Valley overnight.
...South-central TX to southeast OK/western AR...
Will generally maintain previous forecast with little change evident
for this outlook. Low confidence exists in warm-sector development
this afternoon. ARW-based CAMs are aggressive with this occurring in
the northeast TX vicinity which may support an all hazards risk
during the late afternoon and early evening. However, ongoing
widespread stratus beneath a stout EML suggests that a capping
inversion may hold. In addition, a subtle mid-level impulse
traversing the region soon should result in veer-back-veer low to
mid-level wind profiles which may temper overall supercell
structure/intensity should development occur.
A more likely scenario is convective development between 00-03Z
across central TX as convergence strengthens along the composite
dryline/Pacific cold front. Initially, large hail should be the
primary hazard, but upscale growth into an extensive MCS is likely.
Around 50-kt effective shear should support embedded bowing
structures with severe wind gusts, some hail, and brief tornado
threat continuing east-northeast overnight towards the Ark-La-Tex/TX
Coastal Plain.
...Eastern IA/Southern WI/Northwest IL...
The severe threat here is highly conditional as warm-sector
boundary-layer moisture per 12Z soundings may be inadequate to
support substantial warm-sector convective development beneath the
northern periphery of the EML. Latest CAMs suggest minimal, if any,
development occurring amid weak large-scale ascent in the warm
sector. Nevertheless, low-level wind profiles will be supportive of
updraft rotation as slightly backed surface winds should persist to
the southeast of a cyclone near the MN/IA border area in late
afternoon. Should a few storms become sustained, all hazards are
possible but the tornado/hail threat should be dominant.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z