SPC AC 030102

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0702 PM CST Mon Mar 02 2020

   Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
   REGION TO THE MID AND LOWER MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms with large hail, a couple tornadoes,
   and damaging winds are anticipated across the Mid-South through
   tonight.

   ...Arklatex to the mid and lower MS/lower OH/TN Valleys...
   Thunderstorms have developed late this afternoon/early this evening
   from far northern Arkansas/southern Missouri eastward to western
   Kentucky, near a weak surface low analyzed over southeastern
   Missouri and the associated warm/cold fronts.  Supercell wind
   profiles are observed across the region, while broken cloud cover
   from parts of Arkansas eastward aided modest/prior heating -- and
   thus development of 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE.

   Given the environment, a few rotating storms have evolved, with
   attendant severe weather being reported locally.  With time, as the
   low shifts eastward and the cold front sags southeastward across
   Arkansas and the Arklatex region, additional/scattered storm
   development is expected.  While instability is lesser to the south
   -- owing to denser cloud cover which persisted through the day --
   ample shear suggests a few severe storms may evolve from northeast
   Texas eastward across Mississippi and western Alabama this
   evening/overnight.  However, greatest severe potential should remain
   farther north -- focused from northeast Arkansas and southeast
   Missouri eastward across the Mid South/Tennessee Valley area.

   ..Goss.. 03/03/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z