SPC AC 080555

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1255 AM CDT Mon Jun 08 2020

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
   PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST
   MINNESOTA...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A PORTION
   OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AS WELL
   AS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe storms with damaging wind and large hail are
   expected along and ahead of a cold front across a portion of the
   northern and central plains. Remnants of Cristobal may pose a risk
   for a few tornadoes across parts of Mississippi and Alabama Monday.

   ...Central through northern Plains region...

   Thunderstorms ongoing over the northern Plains should diminish
   through early morning as deeper ascent accompanying a leading
   shortwave trough crosses into southern Canada. In wake of this
   feature, a synoptic trough currently situated over the northern
   Rockies will advance slowly east while several vorticity maxima
   rotate through this feature and eventually into the central and
   northern High Plains later today. A cold front will be situated
   across the western Dakotas early today and will advance through much
   of the Dakotas by early evening. The southwestern extension of this
   boundary is forecast to temporarily stall across NE as a lee low
   develops over northwest KS just downstream of a more significant
   impulse that will move through the base of the synoptic trough.

   Boundary layer dewpoints generally in the low to mid 60s F will
   persist in pre-frontal warm sector beneath steep (7.5-8 C/km)
   mid-level lapse rates, and the atmosphere should once again become
   moderately unstable as the surface layer warms with 2000-2500 J/kg
   MLCAPE expected by mid to late afternoon. A capping inversion and
   weak forcing will inhibit thunderstorm development most of the day,
   but storms are expected to initiate within zone of deeper forcing
   along the cold front by late afternoon across the central and
   eastern Dakotas, eventually spreading into northwest MN. A belt of
   stronger winds aloft will support 40-50 kt largely unidirectional
   effective bulk shear with supercells likely to be the initial storm
   mode before storms begin to evolve into lines and clusters. Damaging
   wind and large hail are the primary threats. There may be a small
   window for a couple of tornadoes during the evening as the low-level
   jet strengthens and before the boundary layer stabilizes and storms
   begin to grow upscale.

   ...Eastern Mississippi and western Alabama into west Tennessee...

   Remnants of Cristobal is forecast by the National Hurricane center
   to advance generally northward through the lower MS Valley region,
   reaching southern AR by late Monday night. Vertical wind profiles
   with large low-level hodographs will remain supportive of a few
   low-topped supercells capable of isolated tornadoes east and
   northeast of the center, especially during the afternoon when some
   boundary layer destabilization will be possible between the outer
   convective rain bands.

   ..Dial/Nauslar.. 06/08/2020

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