SPC AC 290549

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1249 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

   Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible Friday
   afternoon into Friday night across portions of the southern and
   central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. A few strong
   tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds are possible.

   ...Central/Southern Plains...

   Strong mid-level short-wave trough is currently digging
   east-southeast across the northern Great Basin toward the central
   Rockies. Latest model guidance suggest 70kt+ 500mb speed max will
   translate across southern CO during the afternoon before ejecting
   across KS into southeast NE by 06z. In response to this feature, lee
   surface cyclone will track across northwest KS into northeast KS by
   early evening. This evolution should encourage a well-defined
   dryline to mix into central KS-western OK by peak heating, trailing
   into northwest TX as post-dryline surface temperatures soar into the
   90s.

   Early this morning, slow-moving MCS has propagated into southeast NE
   with scattered convection trailing west, just north of the KS
   border. This activity is expected to gradually wane/shift east by
   daybreak. Stronger-forced convection is now responding to the short
   wave over the NE Panhandle and this activity should gradually spread
   east through late morning. Latest thinking is low-level moisture
   should hold across southern NE, just north of the surface low as
   easterly boundary-layer component in the wake of the ongoing MCS
   will persist across this region. With upper 50s/lower 60s surface
   dew points expected into portions of northwest KS, supercells should
   readily develop ahead of the approaching short wave by early
   afternoon. An expanding corridor of scattered supercells should
   spread along the NE/KS border within a strongly sheared environment
   characterized by MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Forecast soundings
   strongly suggest very large hail, in excess of 3 inches may be noted
   within this steep lapse-rate environment. Additionally, a few
   tornadoes appear likely with this activity, possibly even a strong
   tornado.

   Farther south along the dryline, intense surface heating should lead
   to minimal CINH by 21z and isolated supercells are expected to
   develop across KS into northern OK where mid-level height falls are
   expected. Models continue to suggest low-mid 60s surface dew points
   will be noted immediately ahead of the dryline which will result in
   a narrow corridor of 3000 J/kg SBCAPE. While model guidance produces
   minimal/no precipitation along the dryline south of I40 over OK into
   TX, low-level convergence along the boundary may prove adequate for
   sustained updrafts at lower latitudes. This portion of the outlook
   is highly conditional, but if storms develop they will be severe
   with very large hail (3-4 inch possible) along with a threat for
   tornadoes.

   While storms along the dryline will likely remain isolated through
   early evening, additional convection should develop along the cold
   front as it surges across eastern KS into northeast OK during the
   overnight hours. Damaging winds may be more common with this more
   organized frontal convection.

   ..Darrow/Wendt.. 04/29/2022

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