SPC AC 110442

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1142 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
   EASTERN KANSAS...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHWEST
   MISSOURI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop from
   the northern Rockies into the middle and lower Missouri Valley
   Saturday into Saturday night. Damaging winds and hail will be most
   likely. An isolated tornado is possible over the middle Missouri
   Valley and vicinity.

   ...Synopsis...
   A weakening upper trough will remain over the Great Lakes and
   Northeast, with a surface high over the Mid Atlantic providing
   stable conditions. To the west, upper ridging will occur over the
   Plains, with gradual height falls occurring over the Pacific
   Northwest. A weak feature may round the upper ridge into the
   northern High Plains late in the day, aiding lift from MT into SD.
   Lift may also be focused over the mid MO Valley during the late
   afternoon/evening in a low-level warm advection regime. Here, 850 mb
   winds around 30 kt will aid theta-e advection.

   At the surface, ample low-level moisture will exist from the central
   Plains to the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast, with the greatest
   instability forecast from the central Plains to the ArkLaTex. A weak
   cold front will drop south across MN and WI, with another boundary
   moving across NE and into northern KS. The combination of strong
   instability and sufficient lift is expected to result in a small
   area of severe thunderstorm potential over the mid MO Valley late in
   the day into the evening.

   ...Eastern NE and KS...northern MO...southwest IA...
   Dewpoints are expected to rise through the 70s by late afternoon
   from both advection and evapotranspiration, resulting in strong
   instability profiles. MLCAPE may exceed 4000-5000 J/kg by 00Z over
   eastern KS.

   A few early day storms may occur from southeast SD into IA, in a
   zone of strong theta-e advection at 850 mb. Some of this activity
   could pose a marginal hail or wind threat early. By late afternoon,
   the front will push across NE, and enhance convergence. In addition,
   there could be outflow reinforcement and/or ongoing storms from IA
   into eastern NE. The greatest severe risk is expected from near 00Z
   into the 06-09Z time frame, from far southeast NE into eastern KS
   and parts of far western MO. Moderate west/northwest flow aloft will
   favor a south/southeastward-moving cell and/or cluster of storms,
   capable of damaging hail and wind. Depending on actual
   boundary-layer moisture quality, isolated significant hail reports
   or wind gusts could occur. A tornado may occur during the first few
   hours prior to storms growing upscale. If an MCS forms, the severe
   risk may persist a bit farther south toward the OK/MO border.

   ...Southeast MT into SD...
   A gradual flattening of the upper ridge will occur over the region,
   beneath 50+ kt midlevel westerlies. Surface convergence will
   increase during the day across southern MT as a weak lee trough
   develops toward the Black Hills. Strong heating will lead to an
   uncapped air mass but instability will be weak as dewpoints struggle
   to reach the 50s F. Strong deep-layer shear should allow for
   hail/wind threat across southeast MT and into western SD during the
   evening. Several CAMs indicate at least one bowing structure,
   suggesting severe gusts may be the primary risk. Given the narrow
   corridor of potential and questions regarding instability, will
   defer potential Slight Risk to later outlook updates.

   ..Jewell/Jirak.. 06/11/2022

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