SPC Day 1 Thunderstorm Outlook Issued 01Z 20030209


ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 090026
SPC AC 090025

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 090100Z - 091200Z


NO TSTM AREAS FCST.


...SRN ROCKIES...

CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO WEST TX APPEARS TO BE
WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS
REGION SUGGEST AIR MASS IS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION GIVEN THE COOL PROFILES AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE
RATES...6.5-7C/KM.  MOST UNSTABLE PARCEL AT EPZ RESULTS IN MUCAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 40 J/KG....BUT QUICKLY DECREASES TO THE NORTH AND
EAST.  ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD NEWD AHEAD OF
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MOST LIKELY PLAYED
A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN EARLIER LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED THE REST OF THE PERIOD. 
 
..DARROW.. 02/09/03

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