ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 090026 SPC AC 090025 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 090100Z - 091200Z NO TSTM AREAS FCST. ...SRN ROCKIES... CONVECTION ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO WEST TX APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION SUGGEST AIR MASS IS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION GIVEN THE COOL PROFILES AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES...6.5-7C/KM. MOST UNSTABLE PARCEL AT EPZ RESULTS IN MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 40 J/KG....BUT QUICKLY DECREASES TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD NEWD AHEAD OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MOST LIKELY PLAYED A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN EARLIER LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 02/09/03 NNNN |