ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 070140 SPC AC 070136 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 070100Z - 071200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MS EWD INTO SWRN AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL. THE HIGH RISK IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE MCB 20 NNE MCB 30 SSW JAN 20 SE JAN 25 ESE MEI 15 W MGM 35 N CEW 15 NNW MOB 25 ESE MCB. THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK. THE MDT RISK IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE HEZ 50 S GLH 40 NW BHM 20 SW GAD 20 N CEW 15 NNW MOB 35 SSE HEZ 20 NNE HEZ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW BPT 10 NW SHV 35 SSE HOT 35 WSW JBR 15 N DYR 25 N BNA 30 W CSV 35 ESE CHA 40 ENE CSG 20 E DHN 30 SSE CEW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW GLS GGG 60 WSW ARG 30 W TBN 40 NNE MHK 25 SE OLU 30 WSW MLI 35 ENE LAF 20 ENE CMH 15 SSW HLG 35 SSE EKN 15 NE ORF ...CONT... 30 ENE SAV 20 SW AYS 25 ENE AQQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW BZN 20 ENE BIL 25 WNW 4BQ 25 W BFF 15 SW AKO ASE 25 WSW PUC DPG 55 NNW ENV SUN 40 W MQM 25 NW BZN. ...ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A THREAT WITH ONGOING STORMS FROM SRN MS INTO CENTRAL/SRN AL... ...SYNOPSIS... EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE ARKLATEX WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO NRN MS AND THEN NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXTEND EWD FROM NRN LA INTO CENTRAL MS/AL. THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT...REACHING ERN KY BY 12Z MONDAY...AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO CENTRAL/SRN AR TO ERN TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...MS/AL... STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E AND ENEWD THROUGH MS AND AL ALONG AN E-W ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM NRN LA INTO CENTRAL MS/AL. A SSWLY 50 KT LLJ...CURRENTLY OVER SRN LA INTO MS WILL LIFT NEWD INTO AL/MIDDLE TN OVERNIGHT. THIS LLJ COMBINED WITH 50-65 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS... WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES IN THE VICINITY OF THE E- W BOUNDARY FROM NRN LA INTO CENTRAL/SRN MS AND CENTRAL/SRN AL WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT WELL INTO THE NIGHT. ...TN VALLEY... SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LESS OF A CONCERN NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY. THE AIR MASS CURRENTLY OVER NRN MS/NRN AL INTO TN/KY IS GENERALLY STABLE WITHIN AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER... MODELS SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STORMS OVER WRN/MIDDLE TN AND NRN MS/NRN AL...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. ..PETERS.. 04/06/03 NNNN |