ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 220058 SPC AC 220057 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 220100Z - 221200Z NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E INL 25 ESE OFK 20 ESE BUB 35 SSE PHP 50 WNW PIR 20 SE BIS 80 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW MRF 30 E FST 15 WSW BWD 35 WSW TYR 25 E SHV 35 SSW MEM 45 N TUP 20 SE CSV 35 WSW HSS 15 N PSK 35 ESE LYH 35 SSW GSB 25 ENE FLO 65 N AYS 60 SSE CTY. ...NRN PLAINS... WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASCENT BENEATH EXIT REGION OF MODEST 70-80KT UPPER JET STREAK SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEAGER MOISTURE WAS RESULTING IN LIMITED MLCAPE AND GENERALLY WEAK UPDRAFTS DESPITE 7-8C/KM 850-500MB LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WHILE HIGH-BASED STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS GIVEN DEEPLY MIXED/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS...AND PERHAPS INTO EXTREME NERN NEB...AND WRN MN THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ...TX/GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST... BROAD MS VALLEY TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY THROUGH TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM WRN U.S. RIDGE BUILDS. LOWER LEVEL QUASI- STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM TX COAST NEWD TO THE CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TSTMS AS THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES. WHILE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD PROMOTE ISOLD CONVECTION JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ALONG THE EXTENSIVE FRONTAL ZONE...GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF LIFT AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE INVOF DEVELOPING WAVE CYCLONE NEAR SRN MS/AL BORDER. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY CURB STORM INTENSITY AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ...AZ/NM MOUNTAINS... ISOLD STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF ERN AZ AND WRN NM WHERE STRONG HEATING AND MARGINAL MID LEVEL MOISTENING FROM PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO WEAK INSTABILITY. DIURNAL...ISOLD...AND ANTICIPATED SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY INDICATES NO GENERAL TSTM OUTLOOK IS NEEDED FOR THE AREA. ..CARBIN.. 05/22/03 NNNN |