ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 310125 SPC AC 310124 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 310100Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S MSO 15 WSW 3HT 40 WNW COD 25 WNW BPI 25 E PIH 35 ENE SUN 15 NE BOI 20 S MSO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW OSH 20 NNE GRR 30 NW MFD 20 S BLF 20 SE TYS 25 NNW HOP 25 ENE BLV 20 ENE UIN 20 SSW OSH. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW CPR 35 NE CPR 20 WSW CDR 25 S DDC 20 SW EHA 10 WNW TAD 40 SSW CPR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BUF 40 NW ELM 30 ENE BGM 25 SSW PSF 15 E GON ...CONT... 20 ENE SBY 35 SE CLT 45 NNE MCN 10 N TCL 10 SE TUP 20 E MKL 20 NNE PAH 15 NNE UIN 15 ENE VOK 25 S CMX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 35 ESE IGM 60 ENE ELY 10 E BYI 30 SSW BOI 45 WNW BKE 35 WNW MSO 55 W HVR 30 SSW GDV 40 NNE RSL 45 E GAG 20 SW AMA 40 SE SAF 20 WNW ONM 35 SE ALM 20 E FST 40 WNW DRT. ...WRN GREAT LAKES SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY... VERY DYNAMIC UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER WI PER WV IMAGERY...WITH 80-90 KT NWLY SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT INTO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY. AS A RESULT...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK ESEWD THROUGH IL/IND/SRN MI THIS EVENING AND INTO SWRN OH/KY LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AS HEIGHT FALLS INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO OH AND THE UPPER NWLY JET NOSES INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...CURRENTLY SWLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO 50-55 KT AS IT VEERS TO THE WEST AND EXTENDS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO SRN OH/ERN KY. THESE WIND FIELDS/STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. LOW TO MID LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER IL/IND WILL FAVOR TORNADOES INTO THE EVENING. AFTER 06Z...WIND FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL...SUGGESTING THE CONVECTIVE MODE WILL EVOLVE INTO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ...CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... AS MOIST ELY UPSLOPE FLOW INCREASES FROM WRN KS INTO ERN CO LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND SUPERCELLS. LOWER TO MID 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTEND FROM SERN WY SEWD INTO ERN CO/SWRN KS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL AS CLUSTERS OF STORMS MERGE...RESULTING IN A SEVERE THREAT SPREADING SEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS INTO SERN CO/SWRN KS OVERNIGHT. ...NRN ROCKIES... UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER WRN ID PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...WILL SPREAD ENEWD INTO CENTRAL MT/ NRN WY AS THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPS THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE WEST. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS FROM ERN ID INTO SWRN MT/NWRN WY AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 50-60 KT SWLY UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS. SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES. ...CENTRAL-SERN AZ... VIS IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN AZ AND NWD OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING WNWWD THROUGH SERN AZ ATTM. DESPITE A WEAK INSTABILITY...UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER FEATURE WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS...THOUGH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS PER 00Z SOUNDINGS OVER THIS AREA WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 05/30/03 NNNN |