ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 210044
SPC AC 210043

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 NNW MOT 30 NW BIS 20 N PIR 30 SE ANW 45 SSW EAR 45 ENE DDC
35 NW CSM 45 S CDS 35 SSE BGS 45 NE P07 30 W MRF 25 WNW ROW
25 WNW RTN 15 E LIC 30 NW CDR 45 E 81V 40 SE 4BQ 35 NE SHR
40 SSE BIL 30 WNW BIL 20 N LWT 25 NNE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S VCT 55 SE AUS
30 ESE ACT 40 NNW ACT 30 W SEP 40 E SJT 25 SSE DRT ...CONT...
10 NW ELP 20 SW 4SL 35 NNE CEZ 25 SW CNY 50 W 4HV P38 60 N DRA
30 WNW TPH 30 ESE LOL 55 W OWY 55 SSE S80 60 NW FCA ...CONT...
70 NNW GFK 40 E ABR 20 N YKN LNK 30 NE CNU 15 SE FYV 40 WNW HOT
20 NE ELD 40 WNW JAN 20 WSW SEM 10 NW MCN 35 NE FLO 15 NNE RDU
20 SSE LYH 15 WNW ROA 20 N BKW 10 ENE PKB 25 ESE YNG BFD
15 SSE ELM 25 SW MSV 10 SW JFK.



...HIGH PLAINS...

MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS
EVENING AS LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE WRN U.S.  THIS
INCREASE IN FLOW HAS ALLOWED CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION TO
MIGRATE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEEP-MOIST CONVECTION. 
DETAILED ANALYSIS OF LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SEVERAL
SHORT WAVE MAXIMA ARE ROTATING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND
THESE APPEAR TO BE ENHANCING POCKETS OF CONVECTION.

ONE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NM TOWARD WEST TX. 
A COMPLEX CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH MULTIPLE MERGERS APPEAR TO BE
FORMING A COLD POOL OVER THE WRN TX PANHANDLE/ECNTRL NM.  THIS
ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN ELONGATED MCS AS IT PROPAGATES TOWARD
SOUTH CENTRAL KS/WRN OK LATER TONIGHT.

FARTHER NORTH...MORE DISORGANIZED ACTIVITY HAS EVOLVED ACROSS ERN
MT...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
EVOLVING ACROSS SWRN NEB/EXTREME NERN CO.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKLEY EVOLVE INTO A LARGE COMPLEX AND MCS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS INCREASING LLJ OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. 
MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WILL LIKLEY PERSIST WELL INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS INCREASING LLJ MAINTAINS INFLOW INTO THIS
ACTIVITY.
 
..DARROW.. 06/21/03

NNNN