ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 270111 SPC AC 270110 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 270100Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E APN 25 WSW HTL 35 NNW MKE 25 NW MSN 15 NNE LSE 10 WSW EAU 60 NNE EAU 35 NNE MQT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WSW TUS 25 NNW PHX 25 S FLG 20 WNW INW INW 30 SSW SOW 15 SE FHU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE OLF 25 S GDV 10 SSE REJ 30 NE PHP 30 WSW HON 40 NE ATY 35 ESE INL ...CONT... 40 NNW EPM 45 SSE UCA 15 WSW FKL 45 W FWA 30 NE FNB 35 WNW CNK 25 NNW GCK 25 W DHT 50 SSE CVS 15 SW MAF 15 SW SJT 20 W BWD ADM 15 WSW FSM 20 N RMG AND 40 E CLT 15 ENE ORF ...CONT... 10 S SBA 35 ESE RBL 75 N LMT 20 SW DLS 25 SSE EAT 35 N 63S. ...ERN MN/WI/NRN IA... A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN WI STRETCHING SWWD TO SERN MN. MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FARTHER SW ACROSS SERN MN AND SWRN WI...THE CAPPING INVERSION IS PREVENTING NEW CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. IF THE CAP CAN WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING...NEW CELLS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SWRN OR CNTRL WI. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH 40 TO 50 KT PRESENT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE SEVERE POTENTIAL GOING AS THE CONVECTION MOVES ESEWD INTO ERN WI. IF THE INSTABILITY AXIS CAN SHIFT EWD INTO LOWER MI...A SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS NRN PART OF THE PENINSULA. ...WRN NEB/NE CO... CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS FAR SWRN NEB AND FAR SERN WY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. BACKED LOW- LEVEL FLOW HAS BROUGHT SFC DEWPOINTS IN SW NEB AND NERN CO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION. AS THE STORMS INTERACT WITH THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AN ISOLATED SEVERE REPORT WILL BE POSSIBLE. RADAR SHOWS A WEAK COLD POOL SIGNATURE INDICATING THAT ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...SWRN AZ... A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS SERN AZ AHEAD OF AN AXIS OF SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION AND THIS COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SUSTAIN THE STORMS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTING A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EWD TOWARD THE TUCSON AREA. ...WRN ID... AN AREA OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS ERN ORE WITH CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS WRN ID. ALTHOUGH THE INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT COUPLED WITH THE 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A SEVERE STORM WITH AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE REPORT POSSIBLE. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS OVER ERN ORE...IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 07/26/03 NNNN |