ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 040103

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2003

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E
EHA 35 NNW EHA 35 WSW DGW 35 N COD 20 SSE HLN 35 NNW HLN 20 WNW GTF
25 S GGW 40 WNW GDV 50 SSE GDV 40 SSE REJ 35 NNW IML 45 NNW GCK 10
NNW LBL 10 E EHA

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W
HOT 40 NE ADM 30 W OKC 35 NW END 25 ESE ICT 15 W CNU 25 NE SGF 40 E
VIH 25 SW DEC 45 SSE CGX 30 SW GRR 35 NNW LAN 15 SE MBS 30 ENE FNT
MTC 15 S FDY 30 SW LUK 15 NE BWG 30 E MKL 45 WSW MEM 25 W HOT

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N ISN 25 WNW MBG
25 SSE BUB 40 WSW BIE 15 WSW STJ 25 SSW P35 20 WNW OTM 30 W EAU 20
NE ELO ...CONT... 45 WNW 3B1 25 SSE AUG ...CONT... 20 E PSX 25 SE
CLL 20 SE ACT 20 SE ABI 30 ENE BGS 45 SSE MAF 20 SSW P07 ...CONT...
35 WSW FHU 50 SSW INW 55 ESE SGU 10 SE RNO 45 E ACV 25 SE CEC 40 NNE
4BK 50 ESE OTH 50 SSW RDM 55 E BNO 65 E BKE 85 WNW FCA

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES...OH VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND
NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
LEE SFC TROUGH IS IN PLACE FROM WRN KS EXTENDING NWD INTO MT AND AN
AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS ALONG AND EAST OF THIS FEATURE.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG INSTABILITY IN WRN KS...ERN CO AND
WRN NEB WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. FARTHER N IN ERN WY
AND ERN MT...MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS. CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
ONGOING ALONG THE WRN PORTION OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THE
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING UNDERNEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE
STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ORIENTED ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT UPSTREAM FROM THE CONVECTION WILL
MAKE MULTICELL SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATER THIS EVENING
AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE STORMS
WILL GRADUALLY ORGANIZE AND MOVE EWD INTO THE GREATER INSTABILITY
AND STRONGER SHEAR ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. SURFACE HEATING IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAS CREATED VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
8.0 C/KM ALONG THE AXIS OF THE UPPER-RIDGE. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. SFC TEMPS IN THE MID 90S WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 F WILL RESULT IN HIGH-BASED STORMS FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  

FARTHER N ACROSS ERN WY...WRN SD AND ERN MT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY OVER ID WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT. AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF
THIS FEATURE...A LINE OF CONVECTION SHOULD ORGANIZE AND MOVE EWD
INTO THE MODERATE INSTABILITY. ALSO...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THIS AREA WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF
35 TO 40 KT. THIS ALONG WITH THE STRONG LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES...WILL MAKE WIND DAMAGE AND/OR LARGE HAIL LIKELY
WITH THE STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE LINE. 

...MID MS VALLEY/OH AND TN VALLEYS...
A LARGE CLOSED-OFF UPPER-LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW HAS INCREASED LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND THIS IS SUPPORTING INTENSE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM LOWER MI EXTENDING SWWD TO NRN AR.
MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND THIS WILL
FUEL CONVECTION INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. A BAND OF STRONG
MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 40 TO 50 KT ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER-LOW WILL
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. OBSERVED SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE REGION SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND THIS WILL MAKE WIND
DAMAGE A POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY WHERE COLD POOLS DEVELOP. AN MCS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN MO OR SRN IL AND THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOST LIKELY TRACK EWD ACROSS WRN KY WHERE LARGE-SCALE FORCING
SHOULD BE THE STRONGEST AND WHERE LOWER 70 F SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
ALREADY IN PLACE.

..BROYLES.. 08/04/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$