ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 090058 SPC AC 090058 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0758 PM CDT MON SEP 08 2003 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE YUM 40 NE IGM 20 NNW CDC 60 NE ELY 50 NE EKO 50 WSW BOI 30 E PDT 45 WNW GEG 40 NNW 63S ...CONT... 80 NNW DVL 40 SW YKN 20 NE CNU PBF 30 SSW MOB ...CONT... 45 NW LRD 20 NNW VCT 40 SSE CLL 40 NNE CLL 10 N ACT 30 SE BWD 50 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW FMY PBI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLM 50 SE OLM 40 WSW RDM 20 NNW MHS 20 SSW EKA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE OAJ 15 ESE SPA 30 NW TYS 25 N SDF 45 S SBN 20 N AZO LAN 25 ENE TOL 35 SSE UNI 25 NW SSU 25 SSW WAL. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SE AZ/FAR SW NM... SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS SERN AZ WHICH IS TIED CLOSELY TO AFTERNOON HEATING. MLCAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 2000 J/KG WHICH SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THE CONVECTION IS PULSE IN NATURE DUE TO THE WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE AND A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL WILL EXIST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES PRESENT. ...NE MT/WRN ND... A LINE OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS FAR NERN MT IN AN AREA OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY. CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS ACROSS WRN ND WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S F. AS THE CONVECTION MOVES SLOWLY NEWD INTO THE HIGHER SFC MOISTURE...SOME STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGESTING A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST. A FEW ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR WITH SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF GREATER THAN 30 DEGREES PRESENT. ...WCNTRL TX... LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS CREATING AN TOUGH ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STRONG SFC HEATING WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE HAS HELPED A FEW STORMS TO INITIATE THIS EVENING. THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ISOLATED HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 09/09/2003 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED. $$ |