ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 030536
SPC AC 030535

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE FMY 20 SE
VRB.


...SOUTH FL...

SRN END OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGRESSING STEADILY ACROSS THE ERN
GULF OF MEXICO...IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. 
DOWNSTREAM...LOCAL VWP DATA INDICATE DEEP LAYER FLOW CONTINUES TO
VEER WHILE BROAD ZONE OF CONVECTION SAGS SEWD ACROSS THE SRN
PENINSULA.  THIS SUGGESTS FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND ANY THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FIRST 2-4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. 

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING INLAND AND UPPER RIDGE AND RESULTANT
WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AHEAD OF NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH.  ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS ALONG
THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...EVEN SO
THIS ACTIVITY MAY PROVE TOO SHALLOW TO WARRANT ANY REAL THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.  TIMING OF NEXT FRONT WILL OCCUR LATER DAY2.
 
..DARROW.. 01/03/03

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