ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 060549
SPC AC 060549

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NNW GLS 30 NNE CLL 25 E DAL 30 SW PGO 15 SSE LIT 30 NE UOX
10 W CBM 25 S MEI 30 SSW HUM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 ENE CRP 30 S HDO 40 NNE SJT 10 NE FSI 25 W PNC 40 NNE CNU
25 SSE BLV 35 WSW SDF 30 N LOZ 45 NW HSS 50 ESE CHA 35 SSW AHN
25 NNW DHN 20 SW PNS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB AGR 15 S SRQ
...CONT... 15 ESE CRP 20 WNW LRD ...CONT... 15 SSE P07 20 N P07
35 NE FST 30 NW LBB 40 S EHA 45 NNE EHA 55 SSE GLD 35 S MCK
50 SW EAR 40 W BIE 40 W LWD PIA 30 SSE FDY 10 SW CAK 20 SW FKL DUJ
15 WSW PSB 15 S AOO 30 WNW MRB 30 WSW MRB 45 SSW MRB 40 WSW DCA
15 SE DCA 25 NE SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE ISN 15 N REJ
45 E CYS 35 ENE DEN 15 N COS 30 WNW PUB 25 NNE ALS 40 W ALS
30 N DRO 50 N CEZ 45 ESE CNY 25 NNE 4HV 55 SE ELY 75 SE U31
20 S U31 20 ENE LOL 45 WNW WMC 45 S BNO 45 NNE 4OM.



...SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN U.S....

SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET WILL EJECT ENEWD INTO
THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY SUNDAY. SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM THE
SERN U.S. WWD THROUGH N TX WILL LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT. BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SC WWD
THROUGH THE TN VALLEY TO A SURFACE LOW OVER NERN OK. A DRY LINE
WILL EXTEND SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH ERN TX.

ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE IN PROGRESS SUNDAY MORNING FROM PARTS OF OK
NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY. LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY. OTHER STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
FARTHER SW ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS N TX AS IT BEGINS TO SURGE EWD
IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING TROUGH. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. 

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP STORMS EARLY SUNDAY IN WARM SECTOR FROM
PARTS OF SERN THROUGH ERN TX...POSSIBLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH WARM
ADVECTION...AND AS MID LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH
SPREADS EWD OVER THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIALLY BE
ELEVATED...BUT WITH RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
IN PLACE...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH ERN TX AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
BY AFTERNOON. ONE LIMITING FACTOR IS POTENTIAL EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION.
HOWEVER...WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NWD INTO PRE-CONVECTIVE WARM SECTOR...THE
ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM ERN TX
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DESPITE LIMITED HEATING. ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP OVER ERN TX MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME SURFACE BASED AS THEY
SPREAD EWD TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING THREAT OF TORNADOES AND
WIND DAMAGE IN THIS REGION. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO THE
SERN U.S. AND TN VALLEY WITH CONTINUE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES
AND DAMAGING WIND DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 

ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE W OF INITIAL ACTIVITY AND E OF
DRYLINE ACROSS E TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND WEAKENING CONVERGENCE MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS
AREA. HOWEVER...FEEL CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP ACROSS E TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. IF
STORMS DEVELOP...THEY MAY SPREAD EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY
EVENING. SOME OF THE CAPE ORIGINATING ACROSS ERN TX MAY ALSO
PROVIDE UNSTABLE INFLOW TO THE STORMS FARTHER E ACROSS THE LOWER 
MS VALLEY GIVEN SWLY LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES.
 
..DIAL/BANACOS.. 04/06/03

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