ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 120524 SPC AC 120522 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW P07 50 WSW INK 10 NE CNM 45 WNW HOB 40 N HOB 50 NE HOB 45 NNW BGS 15 SSE BGS 50 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW MRF 40 WNW ROW 20 N LVS 30 SSW LHX 30 NW LAA 35 SSE AKO 25 N AKO 40 WNW BFF 25 SE CPR 25 SSE BAM 10 SW TVL 15 SSW MHS 35 E EUG 35 NNE DLS 15 NW EPH 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 75 NW ISN 25 NNE MBG 25 W FSD 35 E OMA 15 NE MKC 20 WSW JLN 40 S PGO 40 WNW POE 25 SSW LCH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE BML 20 NW PSM 30 S CON 15 NW BAF 15 NE ITH 10 NE ROC. ...SWRN TX... A DEEP OCCLUDED LOW WILL TRACK FROM SRN ONTARIO INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NWD OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. A RELATIVELY COOL/DRY AIR MASS IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE ERN U.S. IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. DESPITE A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THIS REGION...WSWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SWRN STATES INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL INDUCE A TROUGH IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW RETURNING MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY WNWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ARE EXPECTED AS FAR NORTH AS MAF TO SERN NM BY LATE AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER MOVING EWD OVER THIS REGION COMBINED WITH RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM SWRN TX INTO SERN NM. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SWRN TX TO SERN-ERN NM IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS STORMS MOVE EWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS... MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN OVER SWRN TX THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. ...TX PANHANDLE SEWD TO SWRN OK/NWRN TX... A SLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM SWRN TX TO SWRN KS WITH SPEEDS UP TO 40-45 KT BY LATE TONIGHT. A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE RETURNING NWD THROUGH THE DAY AND REACH EAST CENTRAL NM TO NRN TX OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME...WITH STORMS MOVING/DEVELOPING SEWD INTO SWRN OK/NWRN TX OVERNIGHT. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY... THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED...RESULTING IN A LOW HAIL PROBABILITY OVERNIGHT. ..PETERS/BANACOS.. 05/12/03 NNNN |