ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 190554 SPC AC 190553 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW HSE 30 SSE FLO 45 E MCN 45 SW SEM 35 S BTR 25 SSW POE 40 ESE PRX 15 NW FYV 20 NW UNO 55 SSW CKV 10 SE CSV 20 SW TRI 35 SSE CHO 25 ENE SBY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W ANJ 20 NW MBL 35 W BEH 25 NE MMO 15 ENE MLI 25 ENE ALO 10 N SPW 50 NW OFK 20 WSW EAR 15 ESE RSL 40 ENE LAA 25 SE DEN 40 N DGW WRL 15 SSE BIL 65 S GGW 65 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE GLS 35 NNE HOU 45 W LFK 15 W TYR 35 ENE DUA 20 SSW TUL 20 NNW PNC 30 NW GAG 10 SE DHT 10 ESE 4CR ELP ...CONT... LGB 40 NW BFL 35 E SAC 60 SSW 4LW 40 S GTF 40 NE HVR ...CONT... 40 NNE MTC 20 SW JXN 20 S SBN 45 SE MMO 10 NNW BRL 25 S ALO 30 WNW FOD SUX 30 E OFK 15 N LNK 15 NNW FLV 35 SSE SZL 25 WSW PAH 30 W BNA 20 WNW CSV 25 W TRI 15 NNE PSK 10 SW CHO 30 NNE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSE DRT 25 SE COT 20 NNW ALI 20 E CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW EWB 10 E BOS PSM 20 E LEB 25 S BTV 30 NNE ART. ...NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA... UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE SEWD OVER CREST OF UPPER RIDGE RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATER TODAY. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM NRN ND SWWD THROUGH SERN MT WILL SHIFT EWD INTO MN/SD BY EVENING. A SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE WILL ACCOMPANY THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH INTO ND/MT TONIGHT. RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NOW OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES AREA LATER TODAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO SWLY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PRESENCE OF CAP LENDS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF SURFACE BASED INITIATION. HOWEVER...CAP MAY WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF ERN ND OR MN. SWWD DEVELOPMENT INTO SD ALONG THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE LIMITED BY STRONGER CAP IN THAT AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION E OF THE FRONT FROM NRN MN INTO WI. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS SEWD TOWARD THE U.S. BORDER WITH DEEP SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL STORMS. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS DURING THE EVENING. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ADDITIONAL MORE HIGH BASED DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR UPSTREAM ALONG SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE FROM ERN MT INTO ND DURING THE EVENING WITH DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT. ...LOWER MS VALLEY... COMPLEX OF STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING E OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER MO CONTINUES TO BACKBUILD/REDEVELOP... BUT MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING. IF THIS OCCURS... ONGOING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF AR EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR ALONG THE OUTFLOW AS IT CONTINUES SWD INTO PARTS OF MS...SRN AR AND LA DURING THE DAY. DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...SERN U.S.... ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER THE SERN U.S. ALONG AND S OF SURFACE BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES TO DROP SWD UNDER NWLY FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL MULTICELL LINES OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...CNTRL PLAINS... STORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SPREAD ESEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY MID EVENING AS THEY SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS AND ENCOUNTER STRONGER CAP. ..DIAL/BANACOS.. 07/19/03 NNNN |