ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 110542
SPC AC 110542

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT MON AUG 11 2003

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NW
ISN 10 SSE OLF 60 NNW MLS 65 W MLS 25 NW BIL 55 ENE WEY 35 SE JAC 20
NNE PIH 35 WNW DLN 30 ENE CTB

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE
CRP 45 NW ALI 30 NW LRD ...CONT... 45 ESE P07 20 SE SEP 35 SSW DUA
30 NNW PRX 40 SSE HOT 45 SSE PBF 45 NW POE 25 ENE GLS

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 S GBN 40 NNE IGM
30 E P38 10 NW ENV 50 N SUN 40 W 27U 45 SW S80 10 NNE LMT 15 W MFR
25 NE EUG 35 W PDX 10 NW OLM 30 SSE SEA 25 ENE BLI ...CONT... 50 N
MOT 35 W Y22 50 E CDR 20 N GCK 55 NNW P28 30 S EAR 25 SE JMS 65 NNW
EAU 30 W GRB 20 WNW TVC 35 NE PLN

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS OF
ID NEWD INTO CNTRL MT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL/SERN TX INTO THE
ARKLATEX...

...SYNOPSIS...
SUBTLE UPPER FLOW REGIME CHANGES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS RIDGE
ELONGATES MORE SW-NE FROM THE DESERTS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 
THIS WILL ALLOW UPPER LOW OVER THE OH VLY TO RETROGRADE WWD TOWARD
THE MID/LOWER MS VLY AND THE TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST TO EDGE
EWD.  LOWER LEVEL BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN DIFFUSE...WITH THE
STRONGEST FEATURE BEING A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN MT SWWD
INTO NRN CA MONDAY NIGHT.  A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND ALONG THE
ROCKIES EWD ACROSS CNTRL TX AND THEN NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES.

...UPPER SNAKE RVR VLY NEWD INTO CNTRL MT...
CATEGORICAL SLGT RISK IS VERY CONDITIONAL ACROSS THIS REGION FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.  POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR HIGH BASED TSTMS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER SNAKE RVR HIGHLANDS NEWD INTO THE SWRN MT
MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIMITED AND INSTABILITY ON
THE LOW SIDE.  BUT...GIVEN TSTMS...HIGH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
FAVOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  TSTMS WILL ATTEMPT TO ORGANIZE AND MOVE
OFF THE MTNS LATER IN THE EVENING TOWARD NCNTRL/NERN MT.  GIVEN
850-700 MB THERMAL RIDGE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO BE CAPPED AND UPDRAFTS MAY NOT ROOT INTO THE MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.
IF THEY CAN TAP INTO THIS BOUNDARY LAYER...THEN DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVERNIGHT.

...ARKLATEX TO CNTRL/SERN TX...
LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS DROPPING SWD ACROSS ERN KS EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOULD CONTINUE SWD AND PERHAPS WEAKEN AROUND SUNRISE ACROSS ERN OK
WHERE INSTABILITY IS LESS THAN FARTHER NORTH.  TSTMS APPEAR TO BE
LOCATED WITHIN EXIT REGION OF 85 KT/50 KT H25/H5 JETLET THAT IS
PROGD TO TRANSLATE SWD INTO N TX BY PEAK HEATING MONDAY.  RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MCS AND WEAK FRONT SITUATED ACROSS CNTRL TX
WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE TSTMS WITHIN DIVERGENT LARGE SCALE
UPPER FLOW REGIME. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER MULTICELL TSTM CLUSTERS
WILL EXIST WITHIN LOW LEVEL THERMAL AXIS ACROSS CNTRL/NERN TX BY
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER NLY FLOW WILL FAVOR A SWD MOVEMENT
TOWARD SCNTRL/SERN TX DURING THE EVENING AND GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES... DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSTM
CLUSTERS.

...FRONT RANGE OF ROCKIES...
TSTMS WILL FORM ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS ERN WY...ERN CO AND
NERN NM WHERE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINES WITH STEEP MID
TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
LATER IN THE EVENING...AND COULD SUPPORT SEVERE TSTMS WITH ISOLD
LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS.

...SERN AZ...
ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  BIG QUESTION REMAINS 
MAGNITUDE OF A POTENTIAL MOISTURE SURGE INTO SCNTRL AZ OWING TO
SONORAN MCS AND HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DESERTS.  IF BOUNDARY
LAYER CAN MOISTEN AND H7-H5 FLOW REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...
SEVERE WIND GUSTS/TSTMS COULD PUSH INTO THE LOWER DESERTS DURING THE
EVENING.

..RACY.. 08/11/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$